How Complex Crises Arise and How We Can Address Them

In recent years, the world has experienced a variety of crisis situations that can be understood as a complex system of parallel, overlapping, and interconnected crises. These polycrises have the potential to cause the failure of social and political systems, but have so far received insufficient scientific attention—both conceptually and in terms of their effects. This interdisciplinary project aims to examine the tension between complex crises and the necessary sociopolitical reduction of this complexity. For it is precisely this reduction of complexity that carries the risk of causing crisis communication to fail or of polarizing societal discourses.

To date, there has been no theory-driven conceptual examination of the term “polycrisis” in the social sciences. Its application to empirical observations to date has not been sufficiently theorized; consequently, it remains analytically unclear how a polycrisis can be identified and which individual crises, in what form, constitute a complex system of systemic risks. We therefore see the social-scientific conceptualization of polycrises as a means of reducing complexity. Furthermore, there have been hardly any empirical analyses to date regarding the course, management, and consequences of polycrises for societies and states. This is due, on the one hand, to the fact that the academic community has not yet reached a consensus on an adequate conceptualization of polycrises. On the other hand, however, the few empirical studies that exist demonstrate that the analysis of polycrises and the reduction of their complexity pose methodological challenges.

This research project aims to conceptualize the emergence, development, and progression of polycrises, as well as to examine their impact on social and political discourses and, consequently, on crisis management, in order to provide insights into how these novel crises can be addressed. To this end, we aim to answer two questions in this research project:

  1. How can the dynamics (origin, development, progression) of polycrises be described and conceptualized more effectively?
  2. How do global polycrises influence social and political discourses regarding crisis management and the reduction of complexity?

To address the complex topic of polycrises and their effects, theoretical approaches and research methods from International Relations and American Studies will be combined, including, for example, complexity theory, the theory of ontological security, and methods from corpus-based discourse analysis.

As a first step in the work plan for this research project, theoretical assumptions will be developed based on the literature in International Relations, polycentrism, sociology, and complexity research, which address the question of how polycentric crises can be conceptualized and what potential impacts various polycrises may have on nation-states and their societies. Although IR research has dealt extensively with the concept of crisis, the discipline has so far lacked a systematic understanding of what “polycrisis” means and encompasses. Against this backdrop, this research project begins by integrating approaches to concept formation in order to develop a thorough conceptualization of the polycrisis. This is intended to help understand the widespread uncertainty and complexity that have become characteristic features of today’s international politics.

In a second step, we will then apply the developed concept of polycrisis and, using a mixed-methods approach, examine specifically how social and political discourses take shape in the context of global polycrises. The first case study addresses the polycrisis of global climate change and natural disasters, as well as the social, societal, and political factors that exacerbate their impacts. The second case examines the polycrisis of the war in Ukraine and the associated economic, food supply, and energy crises. Due to their complexity and multifaceted nature, both cases represent ideal types of a polycrisis, but they potentially vary in terms of their diffusion and nonlinearity.

Due to their diffuse complexity within societies, polycrises are often perceived differently, leading to dissent over whether a crisis situation exists at all, who or what caused the crisis, and how it can be overcome. Due to their complexity and seemingly never-ending uncertainty, polycrises have the potential to polarize crisis discourses, which in turn can influence crisis management. Through a methodological approach combining quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis, the project aims to explore the concept of the polycrisis and thereby provide insights into state action in these crisis situations and the perceptions of such action. The United States, as a global superpower, continues to play a decisive role in this regard. However, the project also aims to draw comparisons with other political systems, such as Germany. Here, we are interested in the role that discourse patterns and actors play in the perception and addressing of complex crises, and whether these contribute to the effective management of polycrises (reduction of complexity). Due to their particular complexity, polycrises create a high degree of uncertainty regarding the expected material and immaterial costs to society and the state. Consequently, governments, societies, and individuals strive to reduce the enormous complexity of today’s polycrises in order to legitimize public engagement and acceptance of crisis management in the first place.

The WIN Kolleg offers attractive conditions for interdisciplinary collaboration and networking for our research project. When examining perception and communication in crisis situations, the project can benefit from collaboration with other disciplines—for example, in addressing how crisis communication unfolds not only at the national and societal levels but also how it is processed by individuals on a personal, psychological level. This allows for a holistic understanding of the societal impacts of polycrises and also enables us to examine individual vulnerability to and resilience in the face of crises.

A photo of the “Polycrises” project team in the Academy’s garden. The team members are shown in a medium shot. In the background, there is a wall about waist-high, with a blooming garden beyond it. From left to right in the foreground: Stella Kim, Gordon Friedrichs, Natalie Rauscher, and Steven Schwarz HAdW/Schwerdt

Polycrisis Team